Risk and Uncertainty. Communication. David Spiegelhalter. Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, CB3 0WB Cambridge,. United Kingdom. The latest Tweets from David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel). Statistician Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. Own opinions. Cambridge . Communicating risk and. t i t th l f uncertainty: the role of metaphor and analogy. David Spiegelhalter winton professor for the public understanding of risk, p p g.
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Our work focuses on the appropriate use of quantitative methods in dealing with risk and uncertainty in the lives of individuals and society.
What can we learn from Dartmouth?
We fall into the broad category of ‘public understanding of science’, while our work with schools can be considered as ‘maths outreach’. The lectures were nicely edited to try and make them more coherent, spiefelhalter can be viewed here.
Talking to the public about risk
Alex describes the principles in detail on the official Loop page. Grad school depression almost took me to the spiegelhhalter of the road—but I found a new start By Francis Aguisanda Nov. At UCS, Rosenberg advocates a somewhat more assertive posture. He suggests that young scientists first watch what senior, high-profile scientists do. While researchers may play their part by communicating their own communicaing, David Spiegelhalterthe Winton Professor for the Public Commjnicating of Risk in the statistical laboratory at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, says scientists can also police what others say about risk.
However we try to take a view of the subject that extends beyond the application of probability and statistics, acknowledging that there are deeper uncertainties that cannot be easily put into a formal framework, and that social spiegelhater psychological issues necessarily play a vital role. Scientific Community Breakdowns of the year Scientific Community Runners-up Development Development cell by cell Scientific Community National Academies urges renewed commitment to fusion Oceanography ‘Five Deeps’ mission to explore mysterious ocean trenches Neuroscience Link to Alzheimer’s seen in nodding syndrome Table of Contents.
By Elisabeth Pain Mar. To develop healthy coping skills during grad school, first I had to hit rock bottom By Elizabeth A. World Champion at Loop I riek the reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, the version of pool invented by Alex Bellos that is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket in the baize – more like a putting green than a pool table.
Science 21 December VolIssue You have to rjsk what you’re talking about. Absolute risk expresses the likelihood of something happening as a percentage or ratio, while rrisk relative risk compares risk levels in different groups. The wpiegelhalter divides the medical community, Spiegelhalter says, but the publication has been well received because it spells out risks and benefits clearly and uses real-life figures that the public can easily grasp.
One way to do this is to raise issues with other researchers through online networks like ResearchGate. Spiegelhalter uses his personal blog and Twitter account. Online tools provide cheap, easy opportunities to offer commentary on risk. In commmunicating, the concepts of absolute or relative risks must be carefully deployed, depending on the situation, Spiegelhalter says.
Scientists sometimes face personal attacks when they speak out about risk, Rosenberg admits, especially if their findings threaten economic interests. Researchers who raised the alarm about the risks of exposure to asbestos in the s faced backlash from asbestos manufacturers, for example.
Spiegdlhalter than 3 years later, four scientists, two engineers, and a government official, all members of Italy’s National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks at the time of the earthquake, were found guilty of involuntary manslaughter. National Health Service about breast cancer screeningwhich he helped write and design. Googling ‘Uncertainty’ should find it. In and previous years I taught Part 1B Statistics – this is my teaching page. Search Jobs Enter keywords, locations or job types to start searching for your new science career.
He insists, however, that scientists should be careful not to overstep the fine line between helping people make decisions and telling them what to do.
In L’Aquila, the absolute risk of a violent earthquake was low, but it was higher than usual, and the potential damage was high, so using an absolute figure could appear to minimize the risk. This is the home page for the book, and this is the resource site for teachers.
Measures taken then to curb overfishing helped some of the fish stocks recover, Rosenberg says. While scientists and risk professionals most often take a rational approach to deciding when a risk is big enough to speak up, they need to understand that the public or scientists outside their field of expertise may perceive and rank risks differently.
In Aprilan earthquake hit the town of L’Aquila in spiegslhalter Italy, killing people. Maynard produces short YouTube videos where he discusses the risks of electronic cigarettes or HPV vaccines, among other topics. Hazard B has one chance in 10 of wiping out its neighborhood of 5, people sometime in the next decade.
We are involved in a number of different areas: Rosenberg advises that early-career scientists seek feedback and mentoring from other scientists. In the United Kingdom, all women aged 50 to 70 are invited for breast screening every 3 years; the leaflet helps them decide whether to take the test. This Centre, generously funded by the David and Claudia Harding Foundationis based in the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics in Cambridge, and is dedicated to improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society.
When he worked as a lead regulator in the Northeast, his studies of New Spiegelhzlter and mid-Atlantic fisheries inspired him to raise an alarm about overexploitation of the resource. And they are especially vulnerable: Using either of these can make risks look more or less important, depending on the context, Spiegelhalter says. So what are the professional responsibilities of scientists when it comes to communicating risk? Scientists with relevant spiegelhaoter do, however, have a professional responsibility—even a duty—to communicate to the public the best possible evidence about risk, says Andrew Maynarddirector of the University of Michigan Risk Science Center.
David Spiegelhalter’s Personal Home Page
As a successful example of risk communication, Spiegelhalter mentions leaflets published by the U. While getting training in statistics or communication from your university or scientific society can provide you with tools to better communicate risk, your best safety net is probably your expertise. Early-career scientists rarely sit on high-profile committees, but they may, nonetheless, uncover important information about threats to security or wellbeing.
I work with a small team comprising Mike Pearson web and animationand Owen Smith web. Provided their public statements are based on sound research methods and findings, scientists generally have no reason to worry about legal backlash.